No returns for our betting guru at the weekend with Leeds off colour and Scott McTominay escaping a booking; this midweek he has Aston Villa on his mind
Wednesday 20 January 2021 20:10, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows remains in healthy profit for the season and has another bet to attack on Wednesday with a high Aston Villa shot count at Manchester City.
No excuses. It was meh.
We've had a few losing weeks where the angle was correct but the bet itself didn't cop - that is going to happen at the prices I play at. Remember, I don't have to be right every time to be in profit - in the long-term, playing at inflated prices, which are generous, brings results.
But this weekend's recommendations were ghastly. Apologise to those that followed.
None more so than the Leeds vs Brighton game to have more than 35 shots at 6/1. There was a miserly 14 shots on goal, never has money evaporated so quickly without getting a run. Leeds, who have had more shots on goal than Manchester City this season, had just one, yes, one shot in the entire first half. That's the first time they've had less than two in a half of football since Marcelo Bielsa took charge. At the moment, it's probably wise to treat that drop off in isolation, but it's something to keep an eye on where Leeds are concerned.
Scott McTominay (on at 12/1 for the first booking in Liverpool vs Manchester United) made an early foul on Thiago but the game didn't ebb and flow in the vein to leave McTominay vulnerable for a card. His run is now 33 fouls without a card. And, Harry Maguire (to score a header at 20/1) didn't have a sniff as United rarely ventured forward to create set-piece situations.
So, three points lost on the weekend. Now is the time to gain some momentum. I've got three bets to attack, with four points staked out this midweek.
P+L = +14.5
Dean Smith's boys are back in match action this week after more than a fortnight off due to the Covid outbreak and I'm expecting them to continue where they left off, playing brave, attack-minded football.
In every one of their 15 Premier League matches this season Villa have managed to have 10 or more shots, including racking up 15 away at league leaders Manchester United and 18 in their victory over Liverpool. With their possession with a purpose style, Villa like to play forward at most opportunities and carry a threat from set pieces. If you take the average, they are working at a rate of 15.9 shots per game this season.
Now, a trip to Manchester City doesn't exactly present many chances for sustained attacks - no side have faced fewer shots than City at their goal this season. However, Villa continue to be underestimated by the markets and their performance data puts them right in the mix for a top-six finish. In fact, looking at expected goals, both offensively and defensively, it ranks them down as the league's fourth-best team. They can give City problems.
Only two of the last 68 teams (Bournemouth 15 and Southampton 13) to visit the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League have managed 13 or more shots at City's goal but Villa don't play with the fear many teams are stricken by when facing Pep Guardiola's side.
I'm convinced they'll push the 13 shots line very close and at 11/2 it's worth jumping on with plenty of confidence.
