Manchester City cut the gap to Arsenal at the top of the Premier League to just one point after beating Nottingham Forest 2-0.
Forest had a few good opportunities in the first half, but it was City who took the lead. In the 32nd minute, Josko Gvardiol connected with a corner to put the ball past Matz Sels and give the visitors the advantage.
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Even though City were ahead, Forest looked capable of grabbing an equaliser as the second half went on. But Erling Haaland, brought on from the bench, scored in the 71st minute to secure the win for Pep Guardiola’s side.
Here, The Athletic’s Sam Lee analyses the win for City.
How important was Haaland’s presence?
It is probably churlish to have even thought this, considering I myself had doubted the value of having Haaland in the team recently.
When he is not having many touches and he is not scoring either — a vital point! — it was easy to wonder whether City might be better off, in some matches anyway, with Julian Alvarez up front, doing the old false nine thing of linking up with midfield and helping City dominate matches like they used to pre-Haaland. He did exactly that in December and January when Haaland was injured and he can do it again in future.
But you could see Haaland being missed in the last few matches, going back to extra time against Real Madrid when injury forced him off. Alvarez has been crowded out, struggling to get into matches and against Brighton on Thursday night, while he played well overall, he could not challenge for the long balls like Haaland would have.
Here, it looked like City needed something else, even the spectre of Haaland: the boogeyman, somebody who might run in behind, somebody who might win a header. The game did start to turn when he came on, not necessarily all his doing, but City started to have a bit of space to play with; to run into in midfield and pass into behind the defence.
They needed to get their foot on the ball first of all, so Kevin De Bruyne was conservative initially, but when he saw Haaland peel away, he would have known the pass was the right option and the Norwegian dealt with it perfectly.
He normally only has to settle himself and apply the finish when De Bruyne plays him in, but this time he had a bit more hard work to do, shifting the ball to beat a man and get into a shooting position, and he did it perfectly.
That is his true value, but the sheer threat of the man is not to be overlooked either.
Was City’s performance a problem?
Any victory here would have been hugely important to City given the Arsenal result — the league-leaders won 3-2 away to local rivals Tottenham Hotspur — especially the manner of it, with Tottenham playing well and missing chances and even threatening to rescue an unlikely draw later on.
| Position | Team | Games | Points | Goal diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 35 | 80 | 57 | |
2 | 34 | 79 | 50 | |
3 | 35 | 75 | 41 |
It was never more clear that City will just have to win all of their matches, but this victory was especially weighty just because of how poor City were for large parts of the match — long enough for Forest to have scored at least a couple of goals had they finished better or had better luck.
For about 30 minutes either side of half-time, City could barely keep the ball. If they could manage a rare foray into the Forest half, they derailed it, with Gvardiol and Nathan Ake getting ideas above their station and, for some reason, trying to dribble into the final third.
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Forest kept having chances and it looked like a matter of time before they would equalise at the very least. Any Arsenal fans watching this would certainly be cursing City’s good luck as they kept getting away with it.
Haaland’s goal ensures the title is still in their hands, which was not unexpected at the start of the day, but given how ropey City were for long periods, it did start to look in doubt for a while.
Is this the silver lining to Champions League exit?
With Bernardo Silva looking well below his best and De Bruyne seemingly ready to drop by the final whistle, City can be pretty happy that they are not in Champions League action this week.
‘Happy’ is not exactly the right word, as Guardiola and his players would give anything to be travelling to Munich looking to retain the Champions League, still in pursuit of a treble. Guardiola has been complaining about City’s scheduling recently and the tight turnaround between matches, but even he says he would rather still be in the Champions League than out of it.
But the fact they are indeed out of it can only help them in their quest to win the title. After limping past Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final last weekend, they could prepare for Brighton and Forest — with a tighter turnaround than Madrid to Chelsea — and focus purely on those two matches.
Imagine the added complications of having to weigh up who should start in those two games while trying to have a team strong enough and fit enough to reach a Champions League final as well. As it is, they can now enjoy some time off before recovering for Wolves at home next Saturday, and after that, it is another free week before Fulham away. No worrying about Bayern, no extra minutes in the legs.
With Arsenal out of Europe, too, and also able to rest, it is a silver lining to their penalty heartache against Madrid.
| Position | Team | Games | Points | Goal diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 35 | 80 | 57 | |
2 | 34 | 79 | 50 | |
3 | 35 | 75 | 41 |
What did Pep Guardiola say?
Guardiola was particularly impressed with how his team managed the game against Forest. He said: “We defended the box really good, especially with Manu [Akanji], Nathan [Ake] and Josko [Gvardiol]. Then, in the last half an hour, when Bernardo [Silva] comes inside with Kova [Kovacic], we controlled the game more. We are a team that survives with the ball.
“It is a lot of games and we knew today would be difficult for many reasons, but we take the win and move forward.”
What next for City?
Saturday, May 4: Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Premier League, 5.30pm BST, 12.30pm ET
Revenge would perhaps be on the mind for City were it not for the small matter of a bigger fish to fry (i.e. an unprecedented fourth Premier League title in a row). Back in September, Gary O’Neil’s side triumphed 2-1 at Molineux against City, setting the latter’s league form into a tailspin: following that loss, City won only three of their next eight games.
Wolves’ last win at the Etihad came in October 2019 — a 2-0 victory thanks to an Adama Traore double in the last 10 minutes — but City have won the following three matches at home by an aggregate score of 8-1.
What next for Forest?
Saturday, May 4: Sheffield United (A), Premier League, 3pm BST, 10am ET
Nuno’s side travel to the division’s bottom-placed side, with three points doing more for the away team than the home at this stage of the season. The last three fixtures between the pair have all finished 2-1, with Forest winning two of those three.
Those two wins saw Chris Wood score an 89th-minute winner in this season’s reverse fixture while Forest’s last visit to Bramall Lane came in May 2022 in the Championship play-off semi-final first leg. Jack Colback and Brennan Johnson scored for Steve Cooper’s side that day.
Recommended reading
- Watching Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City as the Premier League title race heats up
- Why Marinakis’ behaviour at Nottingham Forest is shaped by his experiences at Olympiacos
- How players deal with the pressure of a title race
- Why a spending cap could signify an important power shift in the Premier League
(Top photo: Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)
